A study published in The Lancet Global Health warns that rising global temperatures due to climate change could force millions of people into physical inactivity by 2050. This shift may result in up to 700,000 additional premature deaths annually and cause productivity losses of up to USD 3.68 billion worldwide.
Researchers, including those from the Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina, found that increasing heat levels could significantly hinder progress toward the World Health Organization goal of reducing global physical inactivity by 15% by 2030.
The findings suggest that in India, deaths linked to physical inactivity could reach 10.62 per 100,000 people by 2050 under various future scenarios, including low emissions, continuation of current trends, and rapid fossil-fuel-driven development.
As temperatures rise, extreme heat is increasingly limiting people’s ability to engage in physical activity. Supporting this, a study in Environmental Research Health noted that in parts of the tropics and subtropics, hot and humid conditions during peak hours may restrict safe physical activity to minimal movement, such as sitting or lying down.
Currently, physical inactivity is already a widespread issue, with around one in three adults not meeting recommended activity levels. The WHO advises adults aged 18–64 to engage in at least 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous exercise weekly, along with muscle-strengthening activities twice a week.
The research analyzed data from 156 countries between 2000 and 2022, projecting that by 2050, every additional month with average temperatures above 27.8°C could raise global physical inactivity by 1.5 percentage points, and by 1.85 percentage points in low- and middle-income countries.
These increases could lead to an estimated 0.47 to 0.70 million additional deaths annually and billions in economic losses. The impact is expected to be especially severe in tropical regions.
The researchers emphasize the urgent need for action, suggesting measures such as incorporating heat-risk guidance into fitness recommendations, investing in shaded infrastructure for walking and cycling, subsidizing climate-controlled exercise spaces, and strengthening workplace heat-safety regulations.
They conclude that physical activity should no longer be viewed as just a lifestyle choice, but as a climate-sensitive necessity to prevent rising health risks and economic consequences associated with increasing global temperatures.
