India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, according to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. The national capital, Delhi, recorded the lowest fertility rate at 1.2, while Bihar reported the highest at 2.9.
Several states and Union Territories have also registered fertility rates below the replacement threshold. These include Kerala (1.3), Tamil Nadu (1.3), West Bengal (1.3), Andhra Pradesh (1.4), Jammu and Kashmir (1.4), Punjab (1.4), Maharashtra (1.4), Karnataka (1.5), Telangana (1.5), Himachal Pradesh (1.5), Odisha (1.6), Gujarat (1.7), Uttarakhand (1.7), Assam (1.9), and Haryana (1.9).
The SRS report, one of India’s most comprehensive sources for fertility and mortality statistics, shows that fertility rates have declined in both urban and rural areas. However, the drop is more pronounced in cities, where the TFR stands at 1.5, compared to 2.1 in rural regions.
Understanding the Replacement Level
The replacement level fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman must have to ensure that one generation replaces itself. The benchmark of 2.1 children per woman accounts for replacing both parents while also compensating for infant and child mortality.
According to the United Nations Population Division, fertility rates below the replacement level indicate that a population is not producing enough children to sustain its size over the long term, eventually leading to population decline.
A Changing Demographic Landscape
India is undergoing a major demographic transition. Once known for high birth rates and rapid population growth, the country is now witnessing a steady decline in fertility alongside a growing concern over involuntary childlessness.
Research highlights that India’s fertility rate has fallen significantly over the past three decades from 3.4 children per woman in 1992-93 to around 2.0 during 2019-21, and now to 1.9.
Experts attribute this decline to several interconnected factors, including delayed marriages and pregnancies, greater access to contraception, increased female education and financial independence, changing lifestyle patterns, work-related stress, poor sleep, smoking, alcohol consumption and exposure to environmental pollutants.
Potential Impact on India
A sustained decline in fertility could reshape India’s population structure. With fewer births, the country may gradually experience a shrinking proportion of young people and a growing elderly population, similar to trends observed in countries such as Japan and China.
This demographic shift could increase the dependency ratio, placing greater pressure on the working-age population to support retirees. Governments may also face rising expenditure on pensions, healthcare services, social security programs, and elderly care.
Additionally, a smaller workforce could affect productivity, innovation, and long-term economic growth if labour shortages emerge. The decline in family size may also weaken traditional family support systems, potentially contributing to greater social isolation and loneliness among older adults.
As India continues its demographic transition, policymakers will need to balance the benefits of population stabilization with the challenges associated with an ageing society and a shrinking workforce.
